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Fears about Trump tariffs are increasing around the world, but recently, according to a prediction market, it is possible that the US Supreme Court may reject President Donald Trump’s tariffs. This has increased the uncertainty regarding the upcoming decision of the court.
Fears about Trump tariffs are increasing around the world, but recently, according to a prediction market, it is possible that the US Supreme Court may reject President Donald Trump’s tariffs. This has increased the uncertainty regarding the upcoming decision of the court. According to blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, traders on Tuesday gave a 73% chance that the Supreme Court will declare Trump’s tariffs illegal. However, this estimate only reflects the opinion of participants placing claims in the market.
The US Supreme Court is considering whether the Trump administration overstepped its authority in imposing heavy tariffs on various countries by using emergency powers. The matter hinges on whether the government has violated the rights granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Also important is the question of whether the importers will get back the money paid if the tariffs are repealed.
On prediction platforms like Polymarket, people place bets on the outcome of real events, where the odds change depending on the trading. However, analysts say that such markets do not reflect legal expertise or the court’s internal thinking, but rather investors’ expectations and risk appetite.
Donald Trump has dismissed criticism of his tariff policy, accusing opponents of working in China’s interests. They have warned that if the Supreme Court rules against them, they will consider options other than tariffs.
“If we lose the tariff case, we will find other ways,” Trump said earlier this week. The outcome of this case could have a major impact on the US economy. Trump has been calling tariffs a major source of revenue for the government. According to US Treasury data, revenue from customs duty has grown sharply in recent quarters, narrowing the budget deficit to some extent.
Since returning to the White House in January last year, President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on almost all of America’s most important trading partners. Trump says that these tariffs are not only a weapon of pressure in trade negotiations, but also help reduce the government deficit.
According to data released by the US Finance Ministry (Department of the Treasury) on Tuesday, the budget deficit in the October to December quarter has narrowed compared to the previous year due to increased revenue from taxes and tariffs.
According to a senior Treasury official, the US budget deficit fell 15% to $602 billion from $711 billion last fiscal year. Meanwhile, total government revenue rose 13% to a record $1.2 trillion, while spending rose 2% to $1.8 trillion, an all-time high.
According to statistics, this period saw a tremendous surge in revenue from customs duty. It increased to $94 billion in the first three months of the current financial year from $23 billion last year. Treasury officials said that the main reason for this increase was high tariffs.
New Delhi,New Delhi,Delhi
Jan 18, 2026 11:33 AM IST
The sword hanging on Trump’s tariffs! The Supreme Court can reject it, traders expressed 73% probability
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