Ashoka K Kanth
Chinese news agency Xinhua reported on December 25 that the Chinese government has approved the construction of the largest hydroelectric project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Sangpo/Zangbo River in Tibet. The announcement is said to have been made without informing India, the river’s downstream riparian country, and serves as a reminder of how complicated the process of rebuilding ties with its northern neighbor is.
This proposed project could have several negative impacts on India and India had been keeping a close eye on it for many years. As an upper riparian country, China has a history of disdain for engaging with lower riparian countries, exercising transparency and protecting their interests. By doing this, another big obstacle is emerging in the already difficult relationship.
Although Xinhua did not give any details, it has praised it by calling it a green project. However, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) newspaper has written that the construction of this dam will cost a total of 1 trillion yuan (ie 137 billion dollars). The dam is estimated to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, which is more than three times the estimated 88.2 billion kilowatt-hours output of the world’s largest three gorge dam (Three Gorges Dam) at present.
According to the SCMP report, this will be the world’s largest infrastructure project and will involve digging four tunnels 20 km long; With this, half of the water of the river will be diverted. However, the spokesperson of China’s foreign department claimed that despite this, there will be no negative impact on the downstream countries (India and Bangladesh).
The dam will be built in the Big Bend area of the Yarlung Sangpo River, from where the river takes a U-turn and enters India about 20 km ahead. This project will have more than one impact on us. This river is called Siang when it enters Indian territory and its flow will be affected by this project which is the main channel of Brahmaputra river system. According to the Assam Government website, the catchment area of the Brahmaputra in Tibet is 293,000 square kilometers; India and Bhutan have 240,000 square kilometers and Bangladesh has 47,000 square kilometers. Most of the water of these rivers flowing in India originates from its own territory, but this mega project will have a significant impact on the flow of the river and consequently the livelihood of the residents of the downstream areas will also be affected.
Some small-scale hydropower projects built by China in the upper reaches of the Mekong region (known in that country as the Lancang) have caused fluctuating flows and drying up of some areas, reducing fish stocks and in the Lower Mekong Basin. Trends have been observed in depleting mineral deposits and affecting downstream areas in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. From this it can be estimated that what kind of effects this mega dam will have on India and Bangladesh.
Apart from this, there is always a risk of major calamity with this type of project in a fragile and earthquake sensitive area. Even if the dam is not damaged by an earthquake, large-scale diversion of water will affect the environment and biodiversity in the downstream areas. This writer remembers how in 2004, when a temporary lake was formed in the Parchu River, a tributary of the Sutlej River in Tibet, a group headed by the Cabinet Secretary managed the emergency. At that time we had relatively good relations with China which gave us advance notice and data that corroborated our geospatial and other sources. That temporary lake was not breached and the water was gradually drained the following year due to which the Indian territories were not badly damaged. The risks associated with planned projects are even greater.
Through restrained diplomacy, we have managed to maintain limited engagement with Beijing, including three agreements or MoUs related to China’s proposal to provide monsoon season information for the Brahmaputra, monsoon season figures on the Sutlej (corrected after cross-border threats). Apart from this, an agreement has also been reached on ‘strengthening coordination on cross-border rivers’. The first two MoUs are renewed every five years and have now expired. No project is possible under the provisional MoU. The Chinese are stingy in reaching out for cooperation, they are also reluctant to give information about the dry season, the discussion of cooperation on sharing water from rivers across the border was left aside.
China’s attitude towards other neighbors on trans-border rivers is similar. It takes full advantage of its status as a major low-lying coastal country compared to its co-coastal neighbours.
Neither China nor India have signed the UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Use of International Watercourses (1997). However, two key principles of the agreement – the ‘equitable and rational use’ of shared waters and the ‘responsibility not to cause serious harm’ to downstream countries are of wider importance. India has been the responsible coastal state, adhering to the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan despite deteriorating bilateral relations. The same cannot be said about China.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs commented on January 3, “As a low-lying riparian country that has the right to use the waters of the rivers, we have sometimes discussed mega-projects on rivers in Chinese territory at the expert level and also through diplomatic channels.” Thoughts and concerns have been expressed to them. In view of the latest report, these views are being reiterated with the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries.”
Before this, India has adopted a quiet diplomacy. Given the unprecedented scale and impact of the proposed project, we are breaking new ground. This mega project will require flow diversion and large storage capacity, unlike the previous river flow projects in Tibet. The Indian side should seek an explanation about the technical parameters of this plan and the impact on the environment. China should be asked to respect the principle of ‘equal and appropriate use’ and the ‘obligation not to cause great harm’ to countries in the path of the flow, but we should officially ask them to stop further work until then. Until there is complete coordination and mutual agreement on the project.
Quiet diplomacy had its limits. Our concerns should be strongly conveyed to China in the public sphere through government channels. India’s existing rights over the waters of the Brahmaputra should be urgently expanded with hydropower and other schemes, although in doing so, environmental norms and public interest should not be compromised.
The government may not do this, but nothing can stop our NGOs from voicing their concerns about big dams at appropriate international fora. This mega project is in fact antithetical to the prevailing mindset that emphasizes extreme caution before proceeding with large storage plans.
*The author is a Special Fellow of the Vivekananda International Foundation and former Ambassador of India to China.
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